Adam is a CBS Sports assistant managing editor who has been picking college football and NFL since 2002. Born and raised in Florida, he has been covering sports since 1996 when he began his own newsletter and has not stopped following the ins and outs of the games we love. Though he will take the occasional underdog, Adam often looks for value with the favorites, especially after sharp money comes in and lines fall below key numbers. In 2016 he cashed at a 62 percent rate and in 2017 he went 26-18 (59 percent) on NFL picks. Silverstein capped it off by riding the Eagles (+4.5) in Super Bowl 52. For Adam Silverstein media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
This pick is about value. The Yankees just aren't great when they face the Orioles, hitting .245 against them in four games. New York's vaunted offense is also subpar away from home (.252), and against Baltimore's Andrew Cashner is a lifetime .236. The Orioles aren't any better -- including only .235 hitting against Sonny Gray -- but at a price like this, at Camden Yards, against the struggling Gray and with a 3-1 record so far against the pinstripes, it seems like a good place to ride some trends to a major upset winner.
It's difficult to pass up the value the Yankees are providing in this game, seeing as how they have the best record in baseball and are home dogs, but Chris Sale counters that. Current Yankees players have come up to the plate against him 147 times, and 52 times (35.3%) they've gone back to the dugout following a strikeout. Meanwhile, Yankees starter Sonny Gray has a 7.22 ERA at home this season.
Florida?s lack of consistency this season is maddening, particularly for the Rowdy Reptiles, but the Gators have proven to be a team that is able to raise its game to match top-tier opponents. Florida is 6-2 against ranked teams this season and .500 against the NCAA Tournament field. Mike White appears to have gotten into his team's head late in the season for a furious finish despite the tough loss in the SEC Tournament. Let's not forget that UF has the second-most RP quadrant 1 wins in the nation (10) behind only North Carolina. Remember last year when Florida was considered a first-round upset candidate? Yeah, that team went to the Elite Eight ... just like the Gators have in each of their last five tourney appearances. I don't expect that to happen this year -- their frontcourt is basically nonexistent -- but they should be able to beat a St. Bonaventure team that has not played a top-30 defense and lost its only game against a top-40 offense (by 12). The Gators have both and will cover this one (though they'll probably see a double-digit lead dissipate late).
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